Who's not who among the GOP hopefuls and why

I’ve already spoken aplenty about the current crop of declared GOP candidates for next year’s Presidential election – and who wants to beat a dead horse (or a dead elephant, for that matter)? Today, I’d like to take a look at those that seem to be choosing not to run and discuss how this affects the GOP’s chances. With the President consistently polling around 50% in approval ratings (the touchstone for his re-election candidacy,) and the Tea Party dropping like a stone in current national polls, the current crop of Republicans in the race becomes all the more important.

Unlike their counterparts, the GOP Presidential sweepstakes usually fills up with some head-scratchers early on and then thins out. Democrats would seem to attract more serious candidates to their Presidential plebiscites, perhaps because there are fewer ideologues among the blue crowd. This year’s laughable gaggle includes businessman Herman Cain, former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana, notorious nut-job Michele Bachmann, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Nobody (including myself) has ever heard of Cain, Roemer has been out of office for nearly twenty years, Bachmann is in just her third term in the House and can’t even crack the leadership ladder, and Gingrich has been on the sidelines since early 1999.

The GOP has a nice history of recycling candidates. Bob Dole had to seek the nod three times (1980, 1988, and 1996,) before actually winning it (and getting stomped by scandal-plagued Bill Clinton); John McCain had to run twice after running face first into the wall that was George W. Bush in 2000; and even Ronald Reagan ran three times before winning it (1968, 1976, and 1980.) This year’s second-timers are the co-runners-up from the last cycle: Former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. So, it’s been the exception that a first time candidate wins the GOP nod: Dubya took it in 2000 in his first try – prior to that, the last man to do so was Barry Goldwater in 1964!

The 2012 crop for the GOP is quite thin and could be a harbinger of some big wig stepping into the race later and claiming the prize. A recent vintage name (such as Sen. Rand Paul of Tennessee,) could also decide to give it a go, although it would probably just be to run as a way to build nationwide name recognition to try again in 2016. The crop thinned after two big rising GOP stars got caught up in very messy adultery scandals last year.

Gov. Mark Sanford was often rumored to harbor presidential ambitions, but abandoning the state to carry on an adulterous affair (in violation of state law,) while lying to your own aides yields an end to one’s political career. Sanford left office in total disgrace early this year and is presently licking his wounds in the political graveyard known as the lecture circuit. Sen. John Ensign was badly hobbled by his own scandal, where it was revealed that he was screwing a member of his staff (who happened to be married to another staffer,) and is limping out of the Senate next year. The twin killing left the Republicans short of legitimate contenders and the result is a nearly silly group.

Also shortening the list was the Republican debacle known as the 2006 mid-term elections. That (wonderful) year, then President Bush sank in the polls due to his bungling response to Hurricane Katrina and the Democrats took back the House and Senate in short order. Among the Democratic pick-offs that year were Senators George Allen (VA) and Rick Santorum (PA.) The loss left Allen to seek to restore himself to the Senate next year while Santorum is (for some odd reason) running for President anyway and getting widely ignored.

The 2010 mid-terms were a debacle of historic proportions for the Democratic Party, but those elected who might be of presidential timber are still several years away. The Tea Party revolution also put in place legislators that are WAY too far right to be of any consequence nationally. Nevertheless, pols like Chris Christie and Marco Rubio could have a future in the national arena if felicity smiles upon them. They just need to develop the experience portions of their respective rap sheets.

My question about next year’s GOP contenders is this: why aren’t any of the big dogs in the race? Sen. Mitch McConnell is nearing seventy and has always lusted after the Majority Leader position – but there’s no guarantee the GOP will take the Senate in 2012 (especially without a strong candidate atop the ticket,) and McConnell is your stereotypical Deep South Republican that won’t make it to the top of the ladder. McConnell’s #2, Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, is stepping down after 2012 – so he’s out, too.

John Thune
Thune was the 2004 “Giant Killer” who edged out then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle after three terms. He was re-elected in 2010 without opposition and his rugged good looks and folksy Midwestern drawl have gotten him some attention. The GOP Senate elders tabbed him for great things early on, naming him a deputy whip in his first term. Nevertheless, Thune, 50, has already ruled out a 2012 run without saying why and has also said he won’t be in the running to succeed Kyl as whip. He could change his mind on the latter to raise his profile for 2016, at which point he’d be just fifty-five.

Jeb Bush
I’ve said my piece about my home state’s former czar (um, Governor,) in previous soliloquies, so I won’t spend much time on him here. Bush would seem to be done with politics, at least in part because of the damage his big brother wreaked upon the family (and party) political brand. He left office in early 2007 a popular man, but has stayed out of the spotlight since. It’s said that Jeb is content to manage the future political fortunes of his son, George P. Bush, and remain under the radar. Had Dubya nosedived in historical fashion during his second term, Jeb might’ve made for an impressive candidate in 2008. There is no doubt that he could raise the money, but he didn’t bother with a 2010 Senate race that would’ve been over had he simply said he wanted it. So, barring the intervention of some (real, not political,) deity Jeb will remain a non-candidate.

John Boehner
The idea of a Boehner candidacy is almost amusing. First of all, the current House Speaker can’t get thru a speech without bawling and, second, he’s living his political dream as Speaker (now matter how difficult the Tea Partiers are to manage.) The Speaker of the House almost never runs for President, because there is too much risk. Boehner would have the support of the party elites, but is better off staying where he current resides. The people of Ohio’s 8th district will keep right on sending back to the House and that’s where the Tan Man should stay.

The Rest
The current Republican cast of characters is unimpressive to most. When former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah and Gary Johnson of New Mexico are throwing their hats in the ring and not being heckled mercilessly, you know the crop is thin. I’ve beaten that point to death, so I won’t dwell. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi is considered a strong contender, but conservative Deep South candidates usually don’t run that well nationwide (George W. Bush was an extreme exception.) The GOP has little outside that base and their partners in the Midwest. The GOP may well take back the Senate in 2012; but outside of the Lord himself filming a campaign commercial for them, that will be the height of it.

Thanks to the Tea Party, the GOP is undergoing a further rightward shift that could marginalize them permanently. As Americans learn what the Tea Party’s true agenda is (killing what remains of our Middle Class,) they are less likely to keep on winning races. Governors Rick Scott, Scott, Walker, and John Kasich are so busy trying to kill every labor union known to man that they are forgetting the very people they were elected to serve. You can bet that bottom dollar none of the three will see reelection. The Tea Party “establishment” is getting exactly what they do NOT need: exposure. The more America sees of someone like Michele Bachmann, the less likely they are to be trusted with anything as precious as the Presidency of the United States.

Bachmann? LOL!

Congratulations to Michele Bachmann, who aides say will be forming her Presidential exploratory committee by May or June. Bachmann joins Newt Gingrich, Buddy Roemer, Tim Pawlenty, and Herman “Who the hell is that guy” Cain in the thin but ever-widening field of entrants. An exploratory committee is the first step in a candidacy, and, although it is not a formal declaration, allows the prospective candidate to begin raising money and earns them the right to be called a “contender.” The move will also allow Bachmann, a third term U.S. Representative from Minnesota, to participate in early GOP candidate debates.

The most popular response on my Facebook page, where I have been spreading this joyous news today, has been the ubiquitous “LOL.” I’ll start the laughter with a trivia question: When was the last time a sitting member of the House was elected President? The year was 1880 and the candidate was James A. Garfield!! The reason for this is simple: a member of the House does not have a large enough political base, especially not since the advent of the primary system (1960) which made name recognition and fund-raising ability paramount to ancillary factors.

Why else is Bachmann a political “LOL” waiting to happen? Number one, the reason she claims she switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP was because she read a historical novel (Burr by Gore Vidal,) and disliked the author’s characterizations of the Founding Fathers. A novel is a work of fiction, folks – not a reason to change anything as important as your party affiliation! Reason number two would be the fact that, despite having graduated from law school twice (she had to, the first was unaccredited and she would not have been able to practice otherwise,) Bachmann recently gaffed twice in one day by saying the Revolutionary War started in New Hampshire! Yeah, and the Civil War started in Jersey!

Bachmann is a founding member of the House Tea Party caucus (further strengthening my endless arguments against them,) and has done nothing of any real importance in the House in her two plus terms there. She recently declared for, and dropped out of, a race for a middle leadership position! If your colleagues won’t even let you be House GOP Conference chair, why would you think you could be their nominee for President!?

Bachmann’s move today, after swinging through Iowa and New Hampshire recently, spells trouble for the potential candidacy of the Tea Party’s other fave, Sarah Palin. The pair would split the faction’s vote and ensure that neither femme fatale goes anywhere. The best either can hope for would be a spot in the Cabinet, because we saw what happens when such a person gets nominated for Vice President on the last go-round. Bachmann’s ploy is clearly ego-driven and is sure to muddy the already dicey GOP waters for the next cycle. This political cannibalism will ultimately run into the giant brick wall known as the Party Establishment, who would clearly be wise to cut Bachmann and/or Palin off at the knees.

Michele Bachmann, the smart Tea Bagger?

In my family and circle of friends, I’ve always been considered something of an expert on politics. Given that I hold degrees (yes, plural) in the subject, this should come as no surprise. When questions arise, I’m the resource of choice for my loved ones (bite me, Google!) Recently, one of my closest friends came to me with a question: “Pauly, who the hell is Michele Bachmann?” That’s a great question, but not one that I could really answer in great detail (as is customary for me.)

The reason for my short file on Bachmann is pretty simple: there isn’t much to know. Bachmann is known more for her gaffes and “bat-sh*t crazy” reputation than anything else. At 54, she has served about five years in the U.S. House without much distinction other than having been a co-founder of the chamber’s Tea Party caucus. The Tea Partiers seem to love her, leaving everyone with an IQ above 75 to ask why. Bachmann recently found herself in the primary battleground state of New Hampshire, where she twice said the Revolutionary War started in the state (it started in Massachusetts, folks!) While it is true that the two states both have cities named Lexington and Concord, it is Palin-esque for anyone who fancies themselves a Presidential contender to make such a flub.

The ironic part is that Bachmann is not Palin, O’Donnell, or Sharron Angle. Bachmann actually holds two law degrees (the second from the prestigious William and Mary College of Law,) and once worked for the Internal Revenue Service. Were she any of the other three of the Tea Party’s pillars of female brilliance (in other words, were she lucky to have an undergraduate degree from a middling school,) then we could understand … but Bachmann is actually (among the four,) considered to be "The Smart One"!

To be sure, Tea Party voters are not known for their detailed, brilliant platforms and positions. Most of their (ahem) “positions” are based on their collective comfort with ignorance. It’s a virtue and they espouse it (check out the signs at one of their rallies some time.) The Tea Party reminds me a lot of the 2004 Boston Red Sox, who willingly referred to themselves as “idiots.” The difference is that the Sox had talent and the Tea Party has real idiots.

Bachmann is best known for voting against any kind of progressive legislation and for writing the occasional cuckoo bill. She recently proposed a bill that would bar the American dollar from ever being replaced as the national currency (which would be illegal and unconstitutional, anyway.) Her finest bit of legislative craftsmanship is arguably the Light Bulb Freedom of Choice Act, which hasn’t, as yet, passed and probably won’t get past the Democratically-controlled Senate. Bachmann has brought the bill up twice now.

Bachmann was not born into a Republican family. On the contrary, she was a Democrat until he Senior Year in college. That year, she read Burr, Gore Vidal's novel (that is a work of FICTION) about the late Vice President and accused traitor. Bachmann felt Vidal “was kind of mocking the Founding Fathers” in the book and decided “I don't think I am a Democrat. I must be a Republican.”

To sum up: five distinction free years in the lower chamber of Congress, a decent fund-raising record, a failed light bulb law, and a failed run at a lower-rung House leadership position is all that is on Bachmann’s rap sheet. She is popular with the Tea Partiers (which is a bit like being the kid in summer school that almost passed that remedial math class,) and was selected to give their response to Obama’s State of the Union address this year. That and five dollars will buy her a caramel mocha latté, but won’t get near the White House. I say we all thank God and move on!