Who's not who among the GOP hopefuls and why

I’ve already spoken aplenty about the current crop of declared GOP candidates for next year’s Presidential election – and who wants to beat a dead horse (or a dead elephant, for that matter)? Today, I’d like to take a look at those that seem to be choosing not to run and discuss how this affects the GOP’s chances. With the President consistently polling around 50% in approval ratings (the touchstone for his re-election candidacy,) and the Tea Party dropping like a stone in current national polls, the current crop of Republicans in the race becomes all the more important.

Unlike their counterparts, the GOP Presidential sweepstakes usually fills up with some head-scratchers early on and then thins out. Democrats would seem to attract more serious candidates to their Presidential plebiscites, perhaps because there are fewer ideologues among the blue crowd. This year’s laughable gaggle includes businessman Herman Cain, former Gov. Buddy Roemer of Louisiana, notorious nut-job Michele Bachmann, and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Nobody (including myself) has ever heard of Cain, Roemer has been out of office for nearly twenty years, Bachmann is in just her third term in the House and can’t even crack the leadership ladder, and Gingrich has been on the sidelines since early 1999.

The GOP has a nice history of recycling candidates. Bob Dole had to seek the nod three times (1980, 1988, and 1996,) before actually winning it (and getting stomped by scandal-plagued Bill Clinton); John McCain had to run twice after running face first into the wall that was George W. Bush in 2000; and even Ronald Reagan ran three times before winning it (1968, 1976, and 1980.) This year’s second-timers are the co-runners-up from the last cycle: Former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. So, it’s been the exception that a first time candidate wins the GOP nod: Dubya took it in 2000 in his first try – prior to that, the last man to do so was Barry Goldwater in 1964!

The 2012 crop for the GOP is quite thin and could be a harbinger of some big wig stepping into the race later and claiming the prize. A recent vintage name (such as Sen. Rand Paul of Tennessee,) could also decide to give it a go, although it would probably just be to run as a way to build nationwide name recognition to try again in 2016. The crop thinned after two big rising GOP stars got caught up in very messy adultery scandals last year.

Gov. Mark Sanford was often rumored to harbor presidential ambitions, but abandoning the state to carry on an adulterous affair (in violation of state law,) while lying to your own aides yields an end to one’s political career. Sanford left office in total disgrace early this year and is presently licking his wounds in the political graveyard known as the lecture circuit. Sen. John Ensign was badly hobbled by his own scandal, where it was revealed that he was screwing a member of his staff (who happened to be married to another staffer,) and is limping out of the Senate next year. The twin killing left the Republicans short of legitimate contenders and the result is a nearly silly group.

Also shortening the list was the Republican debacle known as the 2006 mid-term elections. That (wonderful) year, then President Bush sank in the polls due to his bungling response to Hurricane Katrina and the Democrats took back the House and Senate in short order. Among the Democratic pick-offs that year were Senators George Allen (VA) and Rick Santorum (PA.) The loss left Allen to seek to restore himself to the Senate next year while Santorum is (for some odd reason) running for President anyway and getting widely ignored.

The 2010 mid-terms were a debacle of historic proportions for the Democratic Party, but those elected who might be of presidential timber are still several years away. The Tea Party revolution also put in place legislators that are WAY too far right to be of any consequence nationally. Nevertheless, pols like Chris Christie and Marco Rubio could have a future in the national arena if felicity smiles upon them. They just need to develop the experience portions of their respective rap sheets.

My question about next year’s GOP contenders is this: why aren’t any of the big dogs in the race? Sen. Mitch McConnell is nearing seventy and has always lusted after the Majority Leader position – but there’s no guarantee the GOP will take the Senate in 2012 (especially without a strong candidate atop the ticket,) and McConnell is your stereotypical Deep South Republican that won’t make it to the top of the ladder. McConnell’s #2, Sen. Jon Kyl of Arizona, is stepping down after 2012 – so he’s out, too.

John Thune
Thune was the 2004 “Giant Killer” who edged out then Senate Minority Leader Tom Daschle after three terms. He was re-elected in 2010 without opposition and his rugged good looks and folksy Midwestern drawl have gotten him some attention. The GOP Senate elders tabbed him for great things early on, naming him a deputy whip in his first term. Nevertheless, Thune, 50, has already ruled out a 2012 run without saying why and has also said he won’t be in the running to succeed Kyl as whip. He could change his mind on the latter to raise his profile for 2016, at which point he’d be just fifty-five.

Jeb Bush
I’ve said my piece about my home state’s former czar (um, Governor,) in previous soliloquies, so I won’t spend much time on him here. Bush would seem to be done with politics, at least in part because of the damage his big brother wreaked upon the family (and party) political brand. He left office in early 2007 a popular man, but has stayed out of the spotlight since. It’s said that Jeb is content to manage the future political fortunes of his son, George P. Bush, and remain under the radar. Had Dubya nosedived in historical fashion during his second term, Jeb might’ve made for an impressive candidate in 2008. There is no doubt that he could raise the money, but he didn’t bother with a 2010 Senate race that would’ve been over had he simply said he wanted it. So, barring the intervention of some (real, not political,) deity Jeb will remain a non-candidate.

John Boehner
The idea of a Boehner candidacy is almost amusing. First of all, the current House Speaker can’t get thru a speech without bawling and, second, he’s living his political dream as Speaker (now matter how difficult the Tea Partiers are to manage.) The Speaker of the House almost never runs for President, because there is too much risk. Boehner would have the support of the party elites, but is better off staying where he current resides. The people of Ohio’s 8th district will keep right on sending back to the House and that’s where the Tan Man should stay.

The Rest
The current Republican cast of characters is unimpressive to most. When former Gov. Jon Huntsman of Utah and Gary Johnson of New Mexico are throwing their hats in the ring and not being heckled mercilessly, you know the crop is thin. I’ve beaten that point to death, so I won’t dwell. Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi is considered a strong contender, but conservative Deep South candidates usually don’t run that well nationwide (George W. Bush was an extreme exception.) The GOP has little outside that base and their partners in the Midwest. The GOP may well take back the Senate in 2012; but outside of the Lord himself filming a campaign commercial for them, that will be the height of it.

Thanks to the Tea Party, the GOP is undergoing a further rightward shift that could marginalize them permanently. As Americans learn what the Tea Party’s true agenda is (killing what remains of our Middle Class,) they are less likely to keep on winning races. Governors Rick Scott, Scott, Walker, and John Kasich are so busy trying to kill every labor union known to man that they are forgetting the very people they were elected to serve. You can bet that bottom dollar none of the three will see reelection. The Tea Party “establishment” is getting exactly what they do NOT need: exposure. The more America sees of someone like Michele Bachmann, the less likely they are to be trusted with anything as precious as the Presidency of the United States.

Bachmann? LOL!

Congratulations to Michele Bachmann, who aides say will be forming her Presidential exploratory committee by May or June. Bachmann joins Newt Gingrich, Buddy Roemer, Tim Pawlenty, and Herman “Who the hell is that guy” Cain in the thin but ever-widening field of entrants. An exploratory committee is the first step in a candidacy, and, although it is not a formal declaration, allows the prospective candidate to begin raising money and earns them the right to be called a “contender.” The move will also allow Bachmann, a third term U.S. Representative from Minnesota, to participate in early GOP candidate debates.

The most popular response on my Facebook page, where I have been spreading this joyous news today, has been the ubiquitous “LOL.” I’ll start the laughter with a trivia question: When was the last time a sitting member of the House was elected President? The year was 1880 and the candidate was James A. Garfield!! The reason for this is simple: a member of the House does not have a large enough political base, especially not since the advent of the primary system (1960) which made name recognition and fund-raising ability paramount to ancillary factors.

Why else is Bachmann a political “LOL” waiting to happen? Number one, the reason she claims she switched from the Democratic Party to the GOP was because she read a historical novel (Burr by Gore Vidal,) and disliked the author’s characterizations of the Founding Fathers. A novel is a work of fiction, folks – not a reason to change anything as important as your party affiliation! Reason number two would be the fact that, despite having graduated from law school twice (she had to, the first was unaccredited and she would not have been able to practice otherwise,) Bachmann recently gaffed twice in one day by saying the Revolutionary War started in New Hampshire! Yeah, and the Civil War started in Jersey!

Bachmann is a founding member of the House Tea Party caucus (further strengthening my endless arguments against them,) and has done nothing of any real importance in the House in her two plus terms there. She recently declared for, and dropped out of, a race for a middle leadership position! If your colleagues won’t even let you be House GOP Conference chair, why would you think you could be their nominee for President!?

Bachmann’s move today, after swinging through Iowa and New Hampshire recently, spells trouble for the potential candidacy of the Tea Party’s other fave, Sarah Palin. The pair would split the faction’s vote and ensure that neither femme fatale goes anywhere. The best either can hope for would be a spot in the Cabinet, because we saw what happens when such a person gets nominated for Vice President on the last go-round. Bachmann’s ploy is clearly ego-driven and is sure to muddy the already dicey GOP waters for the next cycle. This political cannibalism will ultimately run into the giant brick wall known as the Party Establishment, who would clearly be wise to cut Bachmann and/or Palin off at the knees.

Who wants to be President?

The pursuit of the Presidency is a topic that has always been near and dear to my little liberal heart. I’ve been watching with fervent interest since I was a little kid. I am thirty-five years old and have intently watched and followed every Presidential race since the age of four (1980.) I’ll be the first to admit that’s kind of an anomaly among children, but I never said I was a normal child – ask anyone that knew me back then and they’ll respond similarly.

To a young me, the most interesting part of the Presidential races was the “weeding out” process. It’s kind of like watching American Idol ®: almost anyone can come to the auditions, but they are usually laughed at and ejected from the building (George W. Bush was the extreme exception.) The Constitution is fairly vague about who can be President, so nearly anyone with money and some name recognition can give it a whirl. That makes our democracy great – and makes the process amusing.

History is littered with Presidential wannabes, especially since the primaries began in earnest in 1960. Primaries mean anything can happen! Governors and Senators usually make the best candidates, but that’s not a requirement. Members of the House are free to try their hand, but always fail because a House seat doesn’t give you enough exposure to the national media. A House seat is a nice stepping stone to a Senate seat or a Governor’s mansion, but not to running the country (just ask Dick Gephardt and Ron Paul.)

In Texas Hold ‘Em ®, when dealt some great cards that can lead to one of the best possible hands, it is said that player has the “nuts” to a great combination. Becoming a President nominee is a lot like that. To be a competitive candidate for President of the United States, you need a few criteria to be working in your favor: money, credentials, educational background, name recognition, contacts, timing, a clear schedule (which helped give Jack Kennedy the 1960 Democratic nod over then Majority Leader Lyndon Johnson,) and intangibles. Intangibles are attributes like charisma, energy, speaking skills, a good staff, organizational skills, and political adeptness. Being telegenic really helps, as well. One need not possess all of these qualities, but it really does help; and, of course, having much of one can paper over not having so much of another.

Another, lesser noted factor is if you’ve tried before. This builds contacts, fund-raising networks, and name recognition (the importance of which cannot be understated – we are all far more likely to vote for a candidate with whom we are at least somewhat familiar.) Many eventual nominees succeeded only after having previously lost. Al Gore won in 2000 only after having failed in 1988; Bob Dole won in 1996 after having lost in 1980 and 1988; Reagan won in 1980 after losing in 1976 and having been a fringe candidate in 1968; and George H.W. Bush won in 1988 after having failed in 1980.

Another factor is age. Although the Constitution doesn’t specify what is “too old,” there is what I call a “soft age limit” (recently somewhat adjusted.) The “energy” factor comes into play here as older people have lower energy levels that do their younger counterparts and running for the Presidency is grueling. It takes two or so years of night and day activity to mount a successful campaign. This makes national-level politics a relatively young person’s game.

Anyone that does not currently occupy the White House who is much past seventy probably won’t win a major party nomination unless the choices are just not all that appealing. Ronald Reagan’s age caused a bit of a stir in 1980 as he was just about seventy; but Reagan was a very hardy seventy and didn’t look it. John McCain and Bob Dole were both seventy-two when nominated and neither man came particularly close.

A last factor that many candidates of late seem to ignore is what I call the “window” factor (named after a Space Shuttle’s launch window, which is the time frame for a successful launch. Once it’s gone, so are your chances of making it into space successfully.) There is a finite time period for politicians to make the jump to the big time. They are difficult to predict and once they’re over, so usually are the candidate’s chances. Many candidates wait until too long past their primes to run.

A great example of the window factor is former Sen. Bill Bradley. Bradley was a Princeton grad and an NBA Hall of Fame player. Nearly straight out of the NBA, he leveraged his contacts and name recognition into a seat in the U.S. Senate. He was a media darling and, while he was winning in landslides, was considered a contender for the biggest prize. But, thanks to Christie Todd Whitman and an auto tax issue (over which he, as a U.S. Senator, had zero power,) he had a close scrape in 1990 that left him gun shy and out of the wide-open 1992 nomination fight. Bradley retired from the Senate after 1996 and didn’t mount his only shot until 2000, when Al Gore was all but handed the crown.

The window factor is a phenomenon with which Mr. Gingrich is about to become intimately familiar. I’m not saying it can’t be done, I’m saying it is unlikely; and even if the candidate wins the nomination, they’re even more unlikely to be elected unless the other party simply pits a terrible nominee against them. There was a time and a place that Newt Gingrich might have had the gravitas to be considered a serious candidate; that time was 1996 and it’s gone!

Ronald Reagan was well past his prime in 1980, but he was running against Jimmy Carter in a terrible economy – so the voters gave him a pass and elected him anyway. Bob Dole circa 1996 was well past his expiration date, as well, and the people didn’t bite. Dole’s best shot was 1980 or even 1988 and he managed to be an also-ran both times. John McCain’s best chance would’ve been 2000, but he came up against a well-funded and organized George W. Bush and fell by the wayside.

The window factor is big reason why people who start and win statewide races while young have a better shot later. Al Gore, Jr. was twenty-eight when he was first elected to the House and was thirty-six upon going to the Senate. He was at just forty the first time he sought the Presidency and set himself up nicely for a near-miss (victory, really) at fifty-two. Bill Clinton was just thirty-two when he was elected Governor of Arkansas the first time and that set him up nicely to become President at just forty-six. President Obama was a bit older (forty-three) when he was elected to the Senate for the first time, but he’s the closest thing electoral politics has to Superman.

Lastly, the window factor is a big reason why I personally feel that Hillary Rodham Clinton will never be President of the United States. Mrs. Clinton was a relative late-comer to politics, as she was fifty-three when she was first elected to the Senate (this isn’t her fault since she was First Lady for the preceding eight years and couldn’t, in all conscience, run for anything.) Hillary had her shot in 2008, but ran up against the Obama juggernaut (and her own severe lack of charisma and retail political skills.) She’ll be approaching seventy years old by the time she gets ready to give it another go, and, Secretary of State or not, she probably won’t be anymore successful next time. This highlights why it is so difficult to become President: even if you have the skill set, can raise the money, are young enough with enough experience, and hit your window perfectly, there is still the competition. You have to be good and lucky! Hillary, unfortunately, was not and likely realized this, which is why she held on so long to her 2008 campaign. Props to Mrs. Clinton for realizing this, but 2016 will be a time for younger guns to give it their best.

2012
I’ve already written on the GOP’s still growing stable of 2012 candidates. They are not impressive and there just isn’t that much in the pipeline. There are more current and former members of the House in it this time (there’s usually at least one that ignores reality and spends other people’s money in vain.) Rep. Michele Bachmann of Minnesota, former House Speaker Gingrich, Rep. Ron Paul of Texas, and Rep. Hunter Pence of Indiana (who recently all but ruled out a run) are all in the mix. Past that, we have the holdovers: twin former Governors and runner-ups from 2008 are Mike Huckabee and Mitt Romney. Some other former Governors include Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota and Buddy Roemer of Louisiana. Strangely enough, no sitting members of the Senate seem to be interested, as the GOP’s best hope there is Sen. Jon Thune of South Dakota and he’s already ruled it out. As usual, the loser’s running mate is giving it a look: that would be former Gov. Sarah Palin of Alaska.

Palin is a strange figure, as she may well have helped cost McCain the crown last time and resigned her Governorship of the nation’s least populous state midway through her first term. Beyond that, her rap sheet includes time as a small town mayor and a seat on the state pipeline commission. Mrs. Palin lacks any real qualifications outside of being attractive, fund-raising prowess, and the ability to give decent speeches as long as there is no question-and-answer period. Her disapproval ratings are in the sixty percent range (!!!) and she is better suited to a reality show than the White House.

Roemer is a blast from the past: a former one-term Governor, a party-switcher, and a man best remembered for having been lucky to have been elected in the first place. Gingrich is a serial adulterer who recently blamed his multiple affairs on his love for country (good luck selling that one, Newt.) As stated, Mr. Gingrich had a time and place and it’s where it belongs: in the history books. Although Gingrich is a brilliant man, he’ll be lucky if the GOP lets him speak at next year’s convention. Ron Paul is this year’s John Anderson and probably should bow out early and clear the airwaves for his prodigal son (and somehow now Senator from Tennessee,) Rand. Hunter Pence is fooling himself as, luckily for the rest of us, is Ms. Bachmann.

At this point, the battle for the GOP’s 2012 nod looks to be a contest between former Governors Mitt Romney and Mike Huckabee. Huckabee is a failed preacher whose only real virtue is a relatively scandal-free political and home life. “Huck” may play well with the tractor-as-a-motor-vehicle crowd, but the mainstream electorate will not be anointing the cum laude graduate of Ouchita Baptist University to run their lives unless President Obama is caught on camera committing bestiality.

Mr. Romney has problems, too, chief among them the fact that the evangelicals that will love Huckabee will cast a weary eye toward his religion (Mormonism.) Now, that isn’t fair, but neither is Presidential politics. Despite sterling academic credentials (Harvard undergrad and a joint Law Degree/MBA,) money (he’s worth around $200 million,) pedigree (his father was Governor of Michigan and Nixon’s Secretary of HUD,) Romney lacks any real political experience outside of his one term as Governor of a deep blue state (Massachusetts,) where his biggest accomplishment was signing into law (gasp) universal health care coverage.

The GOP field is still wide open and anyone could, and probably will, mount a bid. Pretty much anyone can give it a try. Heck, we live in a country where men like Howard Dean and Pete du Pont have gotten their dance cards punched! Even Alexander Haig, who never did hold an elected office, ran once. Why not? Who cares, it isn’t their money anyway!

In closing, the one person on the GOP side who bears close watching for the next year or so (but has tepidly ruled it out until the big wigs can talk him into it,) is none other than my least favorite former Governor of my home state of Florida, John E. “Jeb” Bush. His name recognition is off the charts; he’s also got nothing else to do. He’s said to be content planning for his son’s political future, but that could change tomorrow. The money would be there and who knows, maybe the electorate will forget exactly how stupid his brother is. Jeb is only fifty-eight and, although he lacks real academic credentials, so did Lyndon Johnson and he won in the greatest landslide ever in 1964. Bush is also still popular enough in Florida to all but guarantee himself the swing state and is much shrewder than either of the two former Presidents in his family, so he bears watching.